China has recently tightened its regulations concerning polluting emissions from new vehicles. Adopted in 2016, this standard became applicable in 2020 and was replaced in 2023 by the much more restrictive China 6b standard. The latter will thus have dramatic consequences on the sales of thermal cars in Europe.
China has long opted for electric, whether full or hybrid, and this is reflected in the growth figures for the automotive sector which were 13% in 2021, 20% in 2022 and are already reaching 25% in 2023. The China 6b standard has surprised many manufacturers around the world and will affect all thermal car manufacturers present in China.
European brands are particularly affected by this new regulation. French brands thus experienced a drop of 46.4%, while Japanese brands recorded a drop of 40% over the same period. German brands suffered a drop of 21.2% and American brands of 12.5%. Only Chinese brands have managed to get by thanks to their remarkable development in the cheap electric sector.
Most consumers are now turning to electric or hybrid vehicles, leaving manufacturers with stocks of cars that will no longer be salable after July 1. Manufacturers are trying to buy time by delaying the deadline by 6 months, but there are still hundreds of thousands of cars that can no longer be sold.
To sell off inventory, automakers will likely need to aggressively promote to avoid ending up with unsold cars and a big impact on second-hand market prices. All of this could have been avoided with better preparation and anticipation on the part of the builders.
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